Somewhat Resilient

Last Update: 8/30/2026

AI Resilience Score for Commercial Divers:

46.9%

Median Score

Meaningful human contribution

High

Long-term employer demand

Low

Sustained economic opportunity

Low

Our confidence in this score:
High

Contributing sources

Methodology and Scoring Rationale

To score how resilient commercial diving is to AI, we ask one question in three parts:

First, how much of the job still needs a human, read from five AI-exposure sources: our own AI Resilience Model, Anthropic's Observed Exposure, Microsoft's AI Applicability, Will Robots Take My Job, and OpenAI Signals. We call this dimension Meaningful Human Contribution (MHC) and weight it at 40%.

Next, whether employers will keep hiring for this job over the long term. This dimension, which we call Long-term Employer Demand (LTE), is calculated from BLS data and weighted at 30%.

Last, whether pay and mobility will hold up. We use wage bill and adaptive capacity data from independent researchers (Althoff & Reichardt, 2026; Manning & Aguirre, 2026). We call this dimension Sustained Economic Opportunity (SEO) and weight it at 30%.

For commercial divers, seven of eight sources had data, with Anthropic being the only gap. The AI exposure sources mostly agreed: AI Resilience Model, Microsoft, and OpenAI Signals all rated the work as highly human, and Will Robots Take My Job landed at medium. That agreement pushes confidence to high. Weaker demand and economic signals pulled the score down, landing commercial divers at "Somewhat Resilient."

AI Resilience Report forCommercial Divers

$72,990 median salary400 annual openingsSOC Code: 49-9092.00

Commercial Divers are somewhat less resilient to AI impacts than most occupations, according to our analysis of 7 sources.

Commercial diving earns a "Somewhat Resilient" label because AI is genuinely changing parts of the job, but not all of it equally. The inspection and data review side of the work is being taken over more and more by autonomous underwater vehicles and AI-powered imaging systems, which means divers can no longer count on those tasks as a steady part of their workload.

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This role is somewhat resilient

Commercial diving earns a "Somewhat Resilient" label because AI is genuinely changing parts of the job, but not all of it equally. The inspection and data review side of the work is being taken over more and more by autonomous underwater vehicles and AI-powered imaging systems, which means divers can no longer count on those tasks as a steady part of their workload.

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Analysis of Current AI Resilience

Commercial Divers

Updated Quarterly

Analysis
Suggested Actions
State of Automation

How is AI changing Commercial Divers jobs?

If you're worried that AI is about to push commercial divers out of the water, take a deep breath — the picture is more nuanced. Right now, most of the "AI" changes in this career are showing up as augmentation: robots and smart software that work with divers, not instead of them. According to technical diving publication InDEPTH, despite major advances in robotic autonomy, sensing, and computation, humans still lie at the heart of underwater exploration, where judgment and situational awareness remain critical.

Projects like Stanford's OceanOneK humanoid robot [1] let a human operator "feel" objects on the seafloor through haptic gloves — a form of telepresence that extends divers rather than replacing them.

Where AI is automating tasks, it targets the inspection and data side of the job. An Offshore Industry analysis [2] reports that AI-powered computer vision for anomaly detection, combined with high-resolution sonar and multi-beam imaging, is enabling automated inspection reporting that reduces the human review burden, and resident AUV programmes — where the vehicle stays at the subsea installation for months — are moving from pilots to commercial deployment. At Brazil's Navalshore 2026 conference, CPG reports [3] that companies showcased autonomous underwater vehicles from the HUGIN family and AI platforms that monitor machinery for predictive maintenance to reduce worker exposure to risky operations.

So AI is chipping away at the inspection, imaging, and data-review tasks (which match the higher automation scores in your list), while the physical work — welding, salvage, pile installation — still needs human hands.

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AI Adoption

How fast is AI adoption growing for Commercial Divers?

Adoption is moving quickly in inspection-heavy offshore sectors, but slowly for hands-on construction and repair. On the fast side, the economics are hard to ignore: Offshore Industry [2] notes that a conventional ROV inspection campaign in the North Sea might cost $100,000–$200,000/day, while a resident AUV can conduct routine inspections without a vessel present, dramatically dropping the cost per inspection. Safety and labor shortages also push adoption forward — the IMCA Global Summit agenda [4] highlighted the impact of global megatrends including AI and new technology, and how ROV and USV simulators are enhancing training and competency, and IMCA even published new guidance for approving ROV simulators, aimed at advancing safety, consistency, and competency in the offshore industry.

On the slow side, physical intervention remains genuinely hard for robots, and demand for skilled divers is still strong. Recruiter Worldwide Recruitment Solutions [5] reports that demand across the sector remains strong in 2026, with offshore oil and gas continuing to rely on skilled diving teams and offshore renewables opening new categories of diving work in turbine foundation inspection and subsea cable maintenance. The most useful skill for young people entering this field?

Hybrid ability — commercial divers now routinely work alongside ROV systems on the same projects, and professionals who can operate hybrid equipment and manage underwater robotics alongside their diving work are increasingly valued by operators. The takeaway: learn to dive and to pilot the robots, and you'll be in demand for a long time.

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Will AI replace Commercial Divers?

Will AI replace Commercial Divers?

Not entirely. We think AI will take over some tasks, but not the whole job.

Commercial divers earn a 46.9% AI Resilience Score, which puts them in a real zone of change. The clearest shift is already happening in inspection work: AI-powered computer vision, high-resolution sonar, and resident autonomous underwater vehicles are automating anomaly detection and routine data review [2]. When a robot can stay at a subsea installation for months and run inspections without a vessel present, operators will use it. That part of the job is genuinely under pressure.

But physical intervention underwater is still something robots handle poorly. Welding, salvage, pile installation, and hands-on repair still need human judgment and dexterity. Even the most advanced humanoid systems, like Stanford's OceanOneK, are designed to extend a human operator's reach rather than remove them from the equation entirely [1]. Offshore renewables are also creating new categories of work in turbine foundation inspection and subsea cable maintenance [5].

The economic and demand picture is tighter than the physical-skills story suggests, so we would not oversell the job market here. The smartest move for anyone entering this field is to build hybrid skills: learn to dive and learn to pilot the robots alongside you [4]. That combination is what operators are looking for right now.

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Latest AI news for Commercial Divers

These articles highlight the evolving role of AI in commercial diving careers. While some fear job loss due to automation, the consensus is that AI will enhance, not replace, divers. For instance, AI can streamline dive planning and improve safety by reducing human error, as noted in the dive center automation article. Additionally, robotics and remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) are taking over routine inspections, allowing divers to focus on more complex tasks. Embracing these technologies can lead to greater efficiency and safety in this high-risk field, fostering resilience in future careers.

More Career Info

Career: Commercial Divers

They work underwater to fix, build, or inspect structures like bridges and pipelines, using special diving gear to stay safe while doing their tasks.

Employment & Wage Data

Median Wage

$72,990

Jobs (2025)

4,000

Growth (2025-35)

+4.8%

Annual Openings

400

Education

Postsecondary nondegree award

Experience

None

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2025-2035

Task-Level AI Resilience Scores

AI-generated estimates of task resilience over the next 3 years

1

97% ResilienceCore Task

Descend into water with the aid of diver helpers, using scuba gear or diving suits.

2

96% ResilienceCore Task

Repair ships, bridge foundations, or other structures below the water line, using caulk, bolts, and hand tools.

3

96% ResilienceCore Task

Install pilings or footings for piers or bridges.

4

96% ResilienceCore Task

Salvage wrecked ships or their cargo, using pneumatic power velocity and hydraulic tools and explosive charges, when necessary.

5

96% ResilienceSupplemental

Drill holes in rock and rig explosives for underwater demolitions.

6

95% ResilienceCore Task

Cut and weld steel, using underwater welding equipment, jigs, and supports.

7

95% ResilienceCore Task

Set or guide placement of pilings or sandbags to provide support for structures, such as docks, bridges, cofferdams, or platforms.

Tasks are ranked by their AI resilience, with the most resilient tasks shown first. Core tasks are essential functions of this occupation, while supplemental tasks provide additional context.

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