Mostly Resilient

Last Update: 8/30/2026

AI Resilience Score for Earth Drillers, Non-Oil/Gas:

51.5%

Median Score

Meaningful human contribution

High

Long-term employer demand

Low

Sustained economic opportunity

Med

Our confidence in this score:
Medium

Contributing sources

Methodology and Scoring Rationale

To score how resilient earth drilling work (non-oil and gas) is to AI, we ask one question in three parts:

First, how much of the job still needs a human, read from five AI-exposure sources: our own AI Resilience Model, Anthropic's Observed Exposure, Microsoft's AI Applicability, Will Robots Take My Job, and OpenAI Signals. We call this dimension Meaningful Human Contribution (MHC) and weight it at 40%.

Next, whether employers will keep hiring for this job over the long term. This dimension, which we call Long-term Employer Demand (LTE), is calculated from BLS data and weighted at 30%.

Last, whether pay and mobility will hold up. We use wage bill and adaptive capacity data from independent researchers (Althoff & Reichardt, 2026; Manning & Aguirre, 2026). We call this dimension Sustained Economic Opportunity (SEO) and weight it at 30%.

For earth drillers, 5 of 8 sources had data. On AI exposure, AI Resilience Model and Microsoft agreed the hands-on machine operation stays largely human, while Will Robots Take My Job saw more risk. That split holds confidence to medium. Weak hiring outlook pulled the score down, but strong human contribution keeps this role "Mostly Resilient."

AI Resilience Report forEarth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas

$60,190 median salary1,400 annual openingsSOC Code: 47-5023.00

Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas are somewhat more resilient to AI impacts than most occupations, according to our analysis of 5 sources.

Earth Drillers (Except Oil and Gas) earn a "Mostly Resilient" label because so much of the physical work, like bolting casing pipes, fishing lost tools out of boreholes, and driving rigs to remote sites, still demands skilled human hands and judgment that AI simply cannot replicate right now. At the same time, AI is genuinely stepping in to handle the paperwork side of the job (things like logging drilling progress and analyzing mud reports), so expect those tasks to shift rather than disappear, freeing drillers to focus on the hands-on work.

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This role is mostly resilient

Earth Drillers (Except Oil and Gas) earn a "Mostly Resilient" label because so much of the physical work, like bolting casing pipes, fishing lost tools out of boreholes, and driving rigs to remote sites, still demands skilled human hands and judgment that AI simply cannot replicate right now. At the same time, AI is genuinely stepping in to handle the paperwork side of the job (things like logging drilling progress and analyzing mud reports), so expect those tasks to shift rather than disappear, freeing drillers to focus on the hands-on work.

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Analysis of Current AI Resilience

Earth Drillers, Non-Oil/Gas

Updated Quarterly

Analysis
Suggested Actions
State of Automation

How is AI changing Earth Drillers, Non-Oil/Gas jobs?

Right now, AI is showing up in ground drilling mostly as an assistant rather than a replacement for the person running the rig. At the IADC's recent Spark Tank event, AI dominated the conversation, and four emerging companies pitched products built around it, but the recurring message was that the industry doesn't want AI for its own sake — it wants practical solutions that improve efficiency, reduce risk, and extend the value of existing assets. The clearest wins are in paperwork-heavy tasks — exactly the ones flagged as most automatable for earth drillers, like recording drilling progress and documenting geological formations.

In one field trial, a mud report analysis that took engineers about 960 minutes was completed by generative AI agents in an average of 8.8 minutes per report, with parsing accuracy that was 2–8% higher than manual work. On the physical side, mining and mineral drillers are seeing autonomous rigs expand: the global mining automation market was valued at $6.2 billion in 2025, projected to grow to $11.1 billion by 2033, driven by adoption of autonomous equipment, AI-driven analytics, and digital solutions that improve safety and cut costs. But water-well, geothermal, and construction drilling remain hands-on trades — bolting casing pipes, fishing lost tools out of boreholes, and driving rigs to remote sites still require skilled humans.

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AI Adoption

How fast is AI adoption growing for Earth Drillers, Non-Oil/Gas?

Adoption will likely be uneven and slower than in oil and gas. A major reason is a genuine labor shortage: the U.S. has about 19,500 professional drillers working outside the oil and gas industry, and this workforce would need to triple to meet the Department of Energy's target of installing 17,500 geothermal networks by 2050. Trade coverage confirms the crunch — as oil prices surge, the hydrocarbon industry is pulling every available rig hand back to the oil fields, leaving ground-source geothermal contractors staring down unprecedented demand without the people to turn a bit to the right.

That shortage is actually a reason companies want AI (to stretch scarce crews further) but also a reason human drillers stay valuable — the anticipated growth of geothermal networks could create jobs that pay well and lead to career paths that can't be undone by AI. Federal projections back this up: construction is expected to add about 360,500 jobs from 2024 to 2034, while mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction is projected to lose about 9,300, meaning demand for water, geothermal, and construction drillers should stay solid. Small contractor margins, rugged worksites, and safety-critical judgment calls will slow full automation, but expect AI copilots for logs, permits, and predictive maintenance to spread quickly.

If you're curious about this career, the message from insiders at Drilling Contractor magazine [1] is reassuring: the future may be digital, but the technologies aren't trying to replace humans — people are still the key to success.

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Will AI replace Earth Drillers, Non-Oil/Gas?

Will AI replace Earth Drillers, Non-Oil/Gas?

No. We don't think AI will replace Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas, though we do expect the job to change.

Our 51.5% AI Resilience Score reflects a career that is holding up reasonably well, and the reasons are grounded in the physical reality of the work. Bolting casing pipes, fishing lost tools out of boreholes, and driving rigs to remote sites are not tasks a software model can handle. Industry insiders are clear that the goal is not to replace people but to make scarce crews more capable [1]. The human contribution here is genuinely high.

Where AI is moving fast is in the paperwork: logging drilling progress, analyzing mud reports, and handling permits. Those tasks will shift, and drillers who get comfortable with digital tools will be better positioned than those who resist them.

The long-term demand picture is mixed. Mining automation is expanding, and some jobs in extraction are projected to decline. But water-well, geothermal, and construction drilling face a real labor shortage, and geothermal growth in particular could sustain solid demand for skilled crews through 2034 [1]. The economic opportunity is moderate, not spectacular, but this is a trade where human judgment on a remote, safety-critical site still matters in ways AI cannot easily replicate.

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Latest AI news for Earth Drillers, Non-Oil/Gas

The articles highlight that while AI technology is advancing in drilling operations, it is unlikely to replace earth drillers, except oil and gas. The first article discusses how AI optimizes drilling conditions in real-time, but the second emphasizes that the role of earth drillers relies heavily on physical skills and judgment in varying rock conditions. This suggests that students entering this field can develop unique expertise that complements AI, ensuring their resilience in a tech-driven environment. Embracing AI as a tool rather than a threat can enhance their careers in drilling.

More Career Info

Career: Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas

They operate machines to drill into the ground for water, minerals, or construction, ensuring everything is safe and runs smoothly.

Employment & Wage Data

Median Wage

$60,190

Jobs (2025)

19,500

Growth (2025-35)

+3.6%

Annual Openings

1,400

Education

High school diploma or equivalent

Experience

Less than 5 years

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2025-2035

Task-Level AI Resilience Scores

AI-generated estimates of task resilience over the next 3 years

1

92% ResilienceCore Task

Drive trucks, tractors, or truck-mounted drills to and from work sites.

2

90% ResilienceCore Task

Perform routine maintenance and upgrade work on machines and equipment, such as replacing parts, building up drill bits, and lubricating machinery.

3

90% ResilienceCore Task

Retrieve lost equipment from bore holes, using retrieval tools and equipment.

4

90% ResilienceCore Task

Assemble and position machines, augers, casing pipes, and other equipment, using hand and power tools.

5

90% ResilienceSupplemental

Place and install screens, casings, pumps, and other well fixtures to develop wells.

6

90% ResilienceSupplemental

Disinfect, reconstruct, and redevelop contaminated wells and water pumping systems, and clean and disinfect new wells in preparation for use.

7

88% ResilienceCore Task

Drive or guide truck-mounted equipment into position, level and stabilize rigs, and extend telescoping derricks.

Tasks are ranked by their AI resilience, with the most resilient tasks shown first. Core tasks are essential functions of this occupation, while supplemental tasks provide additional context.

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